PTI, New Delhi, Jun 4, 2024 : The BJP was poised to be the single largest party on Tuesday but could be well short of an absolute majority, leaving it dependent on its NDA partners to form government, while the opposition INDIA bloc appeared set to be a formidable force.
As votes were counted for the Lok Sabha elections and the hours passed by, the trends did not show up the clear-cut picture the ruling alliance had hoped for and what was projected by the exit polls.
Signifying a shift in the dominance of single-party rule and back to coalition politics, the BJP was ahead or had won in 246 seats, well below the magic number of 272 in the house of 543. The NDA number was 300. At the other end of the spectrum, the INDIA bloc was ahead in 227 seats with the Congress leading or winning in 96 seats, almost double its 2019 score.
In the last elections, the BJP had 303 seats on its own, while NDA had over 350.
Narendra Modi was on track to equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record as prime minister for a third consecutive term but this time with far reduced numbers as his BJP took a knocking in Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party could trump it, Rajasthan and Haryana and did not make the gains it expected in the south.
With plenty of greys in a scenario that was expected to be black and white, few leaders spoke up immediately.
BJP national general secretary Arun Singh said, “It is not a close contest. The BJP-led NDA is going to form its government with a massive majority. Let the counting finish, it will be clear. People of the country are with Modi.”
Congress’ Jairam Ramesh took the opportunity to hit out at Modi saying, “He used to pretend that he was extraordinary.”
“Now it has been proved that the outgoing prime minister is going to become former. Take moral responsibility and resign. This is the message of this election,” he said in a post on X.
Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most politically significant state with 80 seats, threw up a stunning verdict.
The alliance of SP and Congress turned the tables on the BJP in its strongest bastion by ensuring a consolidation of anti-BJP votes, limiting the party to leads in only 36 seats as against 62 it had won last time. The Akhilesh Yadav-led SP was close behind with leads in 34 seats, a massive jump from the five in 2019. The Congress could win six seats.
Modi was ahead by 1.52 lakh votes in Varanasi. However, his party colleague Smriti Irani was trailing behind Congress candidate and the relatively unknown Gandhi family aide Kishori Lal Sharma in Amethi by more than 1.31 lakh votes.
Among those leading from the state, where Yogi Adityanath had steered the Hindutva ship for his party, were Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Rajnath Singh from Lucknow and Akhilesh Yadav from Kannauj.
As SP chief Akhilesh Yadav kept the INDIA bloc morale high in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress, another key ally of the opposition alliance, was leading in 29 seats in West Bengal, a tad higher than its 22 in 2019. The BJP, which had 18 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, was ahead in 12 seats.
Madhya Pradesh went fully saffron with the BJP winning or leading in all 29 seats. In Gujarat, too, BJP was winning or leading in 25 of 26 seats.
The situation was not as decisive in other states.
In Bihar, the BJP was ahead in 12 and its partner JD-U in 13, a vote of confidence for its leader Nitish Kumar who swung from INDIA back to the NDA ahead of the elections. The RJD was poised to win four seats.
In Rajasthan, BJP was ahead only in 14 seats, against all 25 its alliance won last time. The Congress was ahead in eight.
Haryana also threw up a shock result for the BJP, where the party was leading only in five and the Congress in five. In 2019, the saffron party had bagged all 10.
It appeared that the election marked a return to regular politics, where voters were more concerned about bread and butter issues, especially in some Hindi heartland states where the opposition INDIA alliance managed to rally supporters around the issues of unemployment and price rise.
Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, saw the Shiv Sena split down the middle since the last election. The BJP, which won 23 seats five years ago, was down with leads in 11 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena could get seven.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Congress was ahead in 12 seats, up from one, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) in 19. The NCP Sharad Pawar faction could get seven seats, giving the INDIA alliance, forged together by the common dislike of the BJP, a possible 38 seats.
However, a silver lining was provided by Union ministers Nitin Gadkari and Piyush Goyal who appeared on course to easy victories in Nagpur and Mumbai North respectively.
In Odisha, the BJP was doing spectacularly well, with leads in 19 out of 21 seats, while the ruling Biju Janata Dal was down to just one. It was also ahead in the Odisha assembly elections, leading in 76 out of 146 seats, a success show in the state it had never succeeded in capturing.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP was ahead in 16 seats of 25, the BJP in three and the YSRCP in four.
Trends for Karnataka showed potential gains for the Congress, with leads in nine seats, up from one last time. The BJP, which got 25 seats in 2019, was ahead in 17.
Deeper south in Kerala, the BJP could make its much debated electoral entry with trends showing actor Suresh Gopi way ahead in Thrissur. The Congress, which got 15 seats last time, was ahead in 14, including in Wayanad from where Rahul Gandhi was contesting. The CPI-M had gains in one.
Tamil Nadu seemed to be scripting another story, not ceding any space to the saffron party. The ruling DMK was ahead in 22 and ally Congress in nine, a notch higher than their 2019 positions.
Assembly elections also wrote their own narrative.
In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik-led BJD was headed for an unexpected defeat, stymieing Patnaik’s bid for a record sixth term as chief minister. The BJP established early leads in at least 79 assembly seats in Odisha. The BJD nominees, on the other hand, were leading in 48 constituencies 147 assembly seats in the state.
In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party raced towards power with leads in 135 seats in the house of 175, poised to dislodge Y S Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, which was ahead only in 11 seats. The BJP had leads in eight seats.